The flat, familiar, two-dimensional television image at the center of your home theater is about to take on the lifelike illusion of depth. At least that's the way the future looks through the spectacles of Hollywood studios, TV networks and consumer electronics manufacturers as they prepare to launch a massive effort to bring 3D from the silver screen into your living room.Now there's a stampede to 3D TV. Vizio just announced a 47-inch 3D-capable set for $1,999. Consumers will spend $17 billion on 3D TVs in 2018, research firm DisplaySearch forecasts. And manufacturers — and entertainment producers — are scrambling to tie themselves to the technology as it takes center stage at the massive Consumer Electronics Show, which opens here Thursday.This week, ESPN announced plans to launch an all-sports 3D network on June 11, starting with World Cup soccer and eventually including the Summer X Games (extreme sports) and college basketball and college football. ESPN 3D will have at least 85 live 3D sporting events, the Disney-owned network promises.The NFL is also experimenting with 3D. The Dallas Cowboys issued 80,000 pairs of 3D glasses at a home game this season so fans could watch a few plays on a 72-foot-high Mitsubishi video board.The push for 3D in the home goes beyond TV. Acer and Asus have unveiled computers that display 3D. There's broad interest in 3D video games.With profit margins that are thinner than a flat screen, it's no wonder TV manufacturers are banking on 3D as a way to get consumers to open their wallets. Still, it may be difficult to persuade people to embrace 3D. The critical challenges include:
•Selling the technology. Many consumers only recently bought a new HDTV and Blu-ray player. So they might not be exactly thrilled about replacing those models so soon, especially if it costs a lot to do so.
In-Stat analyst Michelle Abraham found that 25% of consumers would not pay extra for a 3D TV over a non-3D TV. Another 43% indicated they'd only pay a premium of less than $200. Just 11% would spend $400 to $999 extra and only $3% would plunk down an additional $1,000 or more.
TV manufacturers aren't expected to price sets in the stratosphere, compared, say, with when HDTVs first became available. "You won't need to take out a mortgage or home-equity loan," says Panasonic's Perry.
But 3D will go into higher-price sets, at least initially.
And some of the latest 3D glasses aren't cheap. For example, high-tech XpanD glasses cost about $50, and you'll probably need a pair for each family member. You can probably expect TV makers or third parties to sell glasses in bundles.
Retailers and TV makers are left with another problem: how to show off 3D in stores. For example, it may prove difficult for stores to hang on to the pricey glasses shoppers will use to judge the pictures, and to keep them clean. "We have to make sure we have a good consumer experience at retail," says John Revie, senior vice president for visual display marketing at Samsung.
As the half-billion dollar epic Avatar has shown, it can be expensive to produce 3D movies. Broadcasting live sporting events also isn't cheap. ESPN, for example, has to hire a whole new crew and set of announcers to broadcast in 3D.
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